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Due to the transformation of the national marine defense strategy, once the military asset injection is realized, China Heavy Industries will be expected to obtain a stable and high profit margin order.
On August 16th, due to the fatal flaws of the new online trading system, Everbright Securities had the largest and most influential “Oolong event†in the history of China’s capital market – the erroneous transaction of up to 10 billion scale, and also caused the SSE The index has an amplitude of 6% throughout the day. According to financial media reports, the reason for the transaction of Everbright Securities is that a department plans to replace the China Heavy Industry stock that has been suspended by purchasing the A50ETF fund, but when placing an order, it will turn an order of 30 million shares into 3000. Wanshou (3 billion shares) directly led to the "Oolong incident".
In addition to Everbright Securities, almost all brokers, funds and investment institutions, including CITIC Securities, GF Securities and China Merchants Securities, are paying attention to the latest developments of China Heavy Industries and are waiting to buy.
So what is the charm of China Heavy Industry that has been suspended for nearly two months, attracting the attention of so many financial investment institutions, and even taking risks to buy its stock?
This will start from May 17. On the same day, China Heavy Industry announced the announcement of the suspension of major events, as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSSC), the controlling shareholder of the Company, is planning major events related to the Company, and in view of the significant uncertainty of the matter, it is necessary to The party conducts consultation and argumentation. In order to ensure fair information disclosure, safeguard the interests of investors, and avoid the abnormal fluctuation of the company's stock price, the company's stock and convertible bonds will be suspended from May 17th upon application by the company.
On May 24, China Heavy Industry released the "Continuous Suspension of Major Events Announcement", saying that, in connection with the written notice of the controlling shareholder CSSC, it is planning major matters related to the company, involving the major equipment assembly business of military industry, which is a major domestic capital market. The precedent matters must be consulted and demonstrated to the national defense science and technology industry and state-owned assets management departments, so there is significant uncertainty.
As soon as the announcement came out, it attracted widespread attention in the capital market. Among them, the words “involved in the major equipment assembly business of military industry†and “significant and unprecedented matters in the domestic capital market†suffocated the appetite of capital market investors.
On May 30, at the China Heavy Industry Shareholders' Meeting, Guo Dongjun, the company's director-general, revealed: "The military assets injected into the plan are the final assembly of military products in Dalian and Wuhan, including domestic equipment and military trade equipment. At the same time, the energy transportation equipment sector will be strengthened. And the technology industry sector, simultaneously consider energy asset injection, including oil exploration, drilling and development applications, coal development equipment applications."
Some analysts said that the analysis of the proposed injection of assets said that it is highly likely to provide assets for the construction and follow-up services of the naval aircraft carrier formation. This annotation has once again triggered the market's infinite imagination of China's heavy industry asset restructuring.
An investment field expert said that due to the transformation of the national marine defense strategy, once the military asset injection is realized, China Heavy Industry will be expected to obtain a stable and high profit margin order. However, according to the explanation of the controlling shareholder Zhongchuan Heavy Industry, the reorganization involves the major equipment assembly business of military industry, which is a major precedent in the domestic capital market. It must be consulted and demonstrated to the national defense science and technology industry and state-owned assets management departments. Therefore, there is still significant uncertainty in the restructuring. Sex.
Third wave of asset injection
The restructuring of China Heavy Industries' assets is not the first asset injection.
At the beginning of the first two asset injections in early 2011, China Heavy Industries raised 10 billion yuan in the securities market, and the assets of the parent company CSIC, Wu Shipu Heavy Industry, He Chai Heavy Industry, Pingyang Heavy Industry, Zhongnan Equipment, Jiangxia Ship 5% equity of 6 companies including Machinery and Hengshan Machinery, 5 shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry capacity building projects such as Barge Heavy Industry and Beichuan Heavy Industry, 3 marine engineering and large ship modification of Dachuan Heavy Industry and Shanchuan Heavy Industry The repair, dismantling and construction projects, as well as the three energy equipment and environmental protection equipment construction projects of Dachuan Heavy Industry, made China Heavy Industries become the “giant aircraft carrier†of A-share shipbuilding listed companies.
However, two large-scale asset injections did not produce good returns. After the injection of these assets, China Heavy Industries has been facing difficulties in integration. The downturn in the Chinese ship market has also caused the injected assets to lower the performance of China Heavy Industries. Its share price has fallen by 38% from the beginning of the integration.
An industry insider said, "China Heavy Industries has always had a plan to build a platform for the overall listing of the group. After completing two rounds of large-scale asset restructuring in a short period of time, the basic framework of its civilian shipping business has taken shape. Injecting military assets is the third asset injection."
In fact, for China Heavy Industries, which is trying to advance its asset restructuring in stages, the signal that it wants to “absorb†its military products business has already been released in its previous 12th Five-Year Plan. In its 12th Five-Year Plan, the company’s military and offshore engineering business will increase its revenue share from 12.5% ​​(now 2011) to 18%.
"At the beginning of the company's listing, we promised to inject military assets in the future, but before the state imposed strict regulations on the injection of major equipment into the listed companies. Now with the gradual opening up of national policies, there are some conditions, as long as the conditions are met, we will To realize the original promise." Li Changyin, the chairman of the company, revealed at the shareholders meeting that the major assembly assets for the Chinese navy will be adjusted to listed companies in the future. China Heavy Industries is the capital platform of CSIC.
Guo Tongjun said: "Through the injection of military and energy assets, the proportion of civilian shipbuilding operations including supporting facilities will continue to decline in a relatively short period of time. In 2011, China's heavy industry civil ship business accounted for 80% of revenue and fell to 57% in 2012. From the new orders this year, the orders for military, marine engineering and energy equipment will reach 65%, and the civilian ships will only account for 30%. After this year, our industrial structure transformation will become more significant. At that time, China Heavy Industry will form military and offshore industries. energy and transportation equipment led, supplemented by civilian vessels and equipment industry, the industrial structure. "
According to the materials exclusively owned by the reporter, last year, CSIC’s total operating income was 27.7 billion yuan, and China’s heavy industry’s total operating income was 10.1 billion yuan. China’s heavy industry’s total operating revenue accounted for 36.5% of the entire group, compared with 35.7% in 2011. Increased by 0.8%. And to the 2011 financial data, China's heavy industry total assets, net assets and net profit accounted for the proportion of the CSIC was 45.7%, 38.2% and 60.4%, respectively, and therefore, in the follow-up of assets into China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Heavy Industry space is still large.
Military business boosts performance
So, why did the injection of military assets subject to capital market investors such widespread concern? How much it can do to create profits for China's heavy industry?
It is reported that China Heavy Industries, the largest shareholder of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industries is a major supplier of China and the development of naval vessels and equipment, accounting for Chinese naval vessels equipped with more than 80% market share, its affiliated ship Heavy Industries, China Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry is currently the only large-scale production A military enterprise with a water surface underwater strategic ship.
In the research report released in January, Everbright Securities estimated that there will be about 10 ships in the future with the "Liaoning" aircraft carrier. At present, China's imports of Russian 7,000-ton destroyers cost 600 million US dollars. With this as a reference, and the construction of hundreds of millions of dollars of nuclear-powered submarines, it is estimated that the cost of China's fleet formation is close to or even exceeds the world average, and an aircraft carrier formation cost is 150. The level of billion to 22 billion US dollars. If the injection of military assets is approved, China Heavy Industries will share a large number of aircraft carrier formation orders.
The research report also pointed out: "Whether the United States has a large number of aircraft carriers or the former Soviet Union has disintegrated, there is only one aircraft carrier manufacturer. The reason is that the aircraft carrier is difficult to manufacture, on the other hand, it is confidential. Therefore, Dalian Shipyard It will be the main manufacturer and maintenance service provider of China's future aircraft carrier, and it is also likely to be the only aircraft carrier manufacturer."
In addition, the aircraft carrier not only costs a lot of construction, but its follow-up maintenance costs are also quite amazing.
For example, the US Air Force’s last conventional power carrier, the Kennedy, has a lifetime of $14 billion (excluding carrier aircraft), but its design and construction cost is $2.05 billion, which is only for the carrier’s lifespan. 14% of the cost. The modification and maintenance cost of the aircraft carrier during its 40-year service period exceeds US$5 billion, accounting for 36% of the total life-cycle cost, which is more than twice the design and manufacturing cost. If the Chinese Navy builds two conventional power carriers in the future, China Heavy Industries will increase its aircraft carrier construction revenue by 40 billion yuan and the annual maintenance income will reach 3.6 billion yuan. Therefore, for China Heavy Industries, its aircraft carrier income dividend will be just started.
Li Changyin is also quite confident about the growth of the military industry. He said: "In the past, the naval development strategy was from near-shore defense to offshore defense. Now it is combined with offshore defense adjustment and COSCO defense, so the demand for equipment must increase. The "National Defense White Paper" of the Ministry of National Defense, the equipment orders of the Chinese Navy will certainly continue to grow steadily, and the profit rate is definitely higher, but the specific figures are not convenient to disclose."
In the research report on China Heavy Industry, Everbright Securities expects its 2013–2014 EPS to be 0.37 yuan and 0.38 yuan respectively, and the CAGR of 6.1% in the next three years from 2012. Everbright Securities also gives China Heavy Industries the target price of 7.4 yuan (current price of 4.46 yuan) and "buy" rating.
In addition, on February 20, CSIC released a message that the Ministry of Science and Technology's “Key Technology and Safety Research for Nuclear Power Ships†863 project and the “Small Nuclear Reactor Power Generation Technology and Its Demonstration Application†technology support project have been formally established.
Industry insiders speculate that this means that China is embarking on a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier or a similar large-scale ship project, which is likely to be carried out in the completion of the CSIC. Analysts have pointed out that China will develop a conventional aircraft carrier in the aircraft carrier strategy. After the technology matures, it will develop in the direction of nuclear power. After China’s first carrier, the “Liaoningâ€, is delivered to the Navy, China will begin to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.