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Domestic sulphur market reproduces crazy "brake" needs policy
The largest increase in chemical products in 2007 was the first to introduce sulphur. After entering the market in 2008, the domestic sulphur market regained its madness. Its high growth rate and rapid growth rate were all surprising. At present, the mainstream price in most regions in China has exceeded the 4,000 yuan mark, and it still seems that it is still unresolved. How much room does sulfur have? How to curb the rising trend of sulfur crazy? Has become the focus of attention in the industry. The author believes that the policy factor will be an important force to curb the frantic rise in the price of sulphur in the market. The space for sulphur upswing has been limited.
At present, the policy factors affecting the sulfur market are mainly the following:
The first is the tariff policy. There are two major tariff policies involving sulfur in 2008. One is that the phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid are raised or the export tariff is imposed. The provisional export tariff is 20% for the first and fourth quarters of ammonium phosphate, and the temporary export tariff is 30% for the second and third quarters; the export tax rate is 5% for the sulfuric acid. Set tariffs. The second is to impose tentative tariffs on the import of sulphur and adjust the tax rate to zero.
Sulfur is basically used to produce sulfuric acid, and sulfuric acid has 3/4 for the production of phosphate fertilizer. The provision of temporary tariffs on the export of sulphuric acid will help reduce the domestic export of sulphuric acid, increase the domestic sulphuric acid resources, and directly reduce the demand for sulphur. Increasing the ammonium phosphate export tariff and reducing the amount of ammonium phosphate exports can also indirectly reduce the demand for sulfur. The introduction of zero tariffs on sulphur imports will reduce the cost of imported sulphur, and will also help reduce sulphur prices. Therefore, adjustments to tariff policies will slow the growth in demand for sulfur.
The second is emission reduction policies. China's natural sulfur mineral resources are limited, but high-sulfur natural gas, high-sulfur coal, and imported high-sulfur oil resources are very large, while sulfur dioxide is the two key monitoring projects of the state to reduce pollutant emissions. With the country’s increasingly strict control over sulfur dioxide emissions and sulfur content of oil products, it will prompt the natural gas, coal, and petroleum refining industries to launch sulfur recovery units to increase the amount of sulfur recovered; currently, the high price of sulfur is also the company’s sulfur recovery. Increased economic drivers. Therefore, the strengthening of emission reduction policies will help increase domestic sulfur resources.
The third is the price policy. On January 9, the State Council held an executive meeting to study and deploy and maintain price stability, and required the maintenance of stable prices for fertilizers such as urea and phosphate fertilizers. It also decided to conduct special inspections on prices of fertilizers and other agricultural materials to standardize price behavior. At the same time, the meeting pointed out that if the price of chemical fertilizers needs to be adjusted due to rising costs, it must be reported to the government's price authority for approval. It can be foreseen that the policy of strictly controlling the price of chemical fertilizers will block the transmission of high sulfur prices downstream and inhibit the continued rush of sulfur prices.
In addition, the current price of sulphur has risen to “astronomical priceâ€, and the external disk has increased from more than 70 US dollars at the beginning of last year to more than 600 US dollars, an increase of 89 times; the highest intranet price has exceeded 5,000 yuan, and it has basically reached the limit of the lower reaches. At present, China is the country with the highest price of sulfur in the world, and there is little room for further substantial increase in the next step.
However, due to the high prices of external disks, many domestic large-scale phosphate fertilizer plants have been put into operation, and the demand for sulfuric acid has grown strongly. The current pattern of sulfur supply is still difficult to change. Therefore, in the first half of this year, especially in the first quarter, sulfur will remain high. After the middle of the year, various policy factors will play an increasingly important role. The supply and demand of sulfur are expected to be balanced, and the situation of soaring prices will be eased.