Insufficient start-up of tire companies intensifies rubber decline

From May to now, in just two months, the spot price of natural rubber fell by nearly 2,000 yuan/ton, a drop of about 15%, and Hujiao's futures price fell by about 19%.

Such a sharp decline has made some people in the rubber industry who have been working for many years frightened. What is the reason for this status quo? What will be the impact?

High stock prices into rubber prices upward resistance

According to the analysis, the debt problem in Europe was in a good and bad time, causing investors to worry about the future economic situation. NYMEX (New York Commercial Futures Exchange) crude oil and external disk rubber have reacted significantly to this, and domestic rubber futures were dragged down by it. Faster.

In this case, the reporter interviewed a salesperson who had been engaged in the rubber trade for many years. According to this person, generally speaking, rubber futures and spot prices affect each other. Under the downward trend of futures prices, it is normal for the spot market to be equally bad.

“But this is only one aspect.” This person said that the spot of rubber futures is interconnected, but the contradiction between supply and demand is the root cause of market problems.

It is understood that as of July 21, Qingdao Bonded Port Area, natural rubber, rubber compound and synthetic rubber stocks, a total of about 22.8 million tons, of which about 22,000 tons of tobacco tablets, standard rubber 141,000 tons, 23,000 tons of composite rubber, 4.30 million tons of synthetic rubber. According to statistics, only natural rubber, compared with last week (July 14th), has increased by about 0.3 million tons. This high level of inventory has become a huge resistance to the rise in rubber prices.

Tire enterprise operating rate reduced dramatically

According to Liu Bin, a researcher at the China Futures Rubber Research Institute, in addition to rubber, the inventory situation of tire manufacturers is also worrying. Since the beginning of this year, many companies have maintained a low operating rate.

The reporter learned through telephone interviews that many small and medium-sized tire companies have now stopped work, and large-scale tire companies have some operating rates of less than 60%. This situation is particularly noticeable in the province of Shandong, where tires are produced.

“All-steel tires generally have a lower operating rate, but the operating rate of semi-steel tires is slightly better.” An industry source stated that some tire companies have to “vacate” for 5-10 days. This is to ease the inventory pressure.

It is reported that although the “digestion” status of downstream tire companies is not satisfactory, the import volume of natural rubber has not been affected at all.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, in the first six months of this year, China's natural rubber imports increased by 12.8% from the same period last year to 98.597 million tons. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, domestic tire production reached 83.15 million, an increase of 19% year-on-year; from January to June, tire production totaled 4.2043 million, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year.

According to the above data analysis, the amount of rubber required for tire production is far lower than the amount of imported natural rubber. In this context, the drop in the price of natural rubber is still the current mainstream trend. The serious shortage of operating capacity of tire companies further exacerbated this decline.

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